Mapping the Immigration Debate (continued) – The Search for Reliable Data

If you’ve been following the immigration debate, perhaps you’ve heard of a report called The INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants. Numerous bloggers have been using its startling statistics to add more fuel to the already emotionally heated discussion. For example, it claims that 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens, and 75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens.

As the report makes its way around the web, some people are starting to question its accuracy and its source. Many are calling it bogus. Reading all of this, I decided to go out and see what kind of reliable statistics are out there on the topic. It was a tough endeavor, let me tell you. After many dead ends, I finally came across the 2004 State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) report. The SCAAP provides federal payments to states and localities that incurred costs for incarcerating undocumented criminal aliens. Contained in the report are illegal inmate counts, and the number of days they spent in jail. Assuming states want to be reimbursed by the federal government, and thus report as many illegals as possible, the data should be somewhat realistic.

How does what I found compare to the INS/FBI Report? The INS/FBI document claims that 40% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally. When I compared illegal immigrant days spent in jail to total inmate days spent in jail, I got illegals at 9%. Obviously, the comparison is slightly flawed (I’d have used total prisoners, but it wasn’t included in report), yet the large spread is noteworthy.

Moving on to the map below, you can see that California is far and away the state with the most illegal immigrant criminals. In fact, it has roughly four times as many illegal inmates as does Texas, which ranks second. Rounding out the top five are New York, Arizona, and Florida.

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