Hopeful Huckabee

Last night in the CNN/Youtube Republican debate, he charmed the audience with his quick wit and clever oratory. When asked whether Jesus would support the death penalty, Huckabee responded without pause: “Jesus was too smart to ever run for office.” Thunderous applauses of approval from the audience also followed many of his answers to probing questions from Youtubers and host, Anderson Cooper.

In the pivitol Iowa polls, the “Huckster” is currently neck-in-neck with Romney: the long time leader of the pack in that state. Since July, the Arkansas Governor’s poll ratings in Iowa have shot up dramatically; other Republican presidential hopefuls have seen diminishing support over the same time period.

The graph below shows monthly average ratings from major political polls taken by organizations like Gallup, the American Research Group and the America Reporter and Strategic Vision (source of average poll results: www.usaelectionpolls.com). The results of a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 27, 2007 are also shown on the figure. Link here to see the data in Swivel.

Average Percent Support by Month by Candidate

What about the rest of the country? The maps below show average percent support for Romney and Huckabee for the month of November; brighter shades of red indicate higher percentages. Not surprising, Romney’s greatest share is in Utah. But, he also has strong backing in New Hampshire, another political bellweather state like Iowa. The top five states for Romney, not including Iowa, are: Utah (65%),
New Hampshire (33%), Michigan (25%), Nevada (21%) and South Carolina (21%).

Percent Support for Romney

Huckabee’s strongest shares of support, outside of the Hawkeye state and presumably Arkansas, appear to be in the South and Southeast. His top five states, according to November polls and excluding Iowa, are: Texas (16%), Missouri (12%), North Carolina (12%), South Carolina (12%) and Wisconsin (11%). And BTW, those states share something in common with Iowa: they are all places where Huckabee is gaining swift momentum.

Percent Support for Huckabee