Mapping the Geopolitics of Oil: Quantifying the Supply and Demand Side Impacts of the Georgia Conflict

Geopolitical tensions wreaked havoc on oil prices last week. While an unstable U.S. dollar can partly explain the recent volatility in the market, Russia’s invasion of Georgia and continued military presence in that region is clearly a factor. First, Russia sits on a lot of oil and natural gas. The maps below, which were generated using data from the USGS World Petroleum Assessment , show known reserves of oil in millions of barrels of oil (MMBO) and natural gas in billions of cubic feet of gas (BCFG) for countries outside of the U.S. The color ranking for the volumes from high to low is red-orange-yellow-green (Thanks Sean and Raj for help on the mapping side).

Known Crude Oil Reserves

Known Natural Gas Reserves

Also at issue is the fact that Georgia is a key transshipment node in the movement of Caspian crude oil and natural gas to markets in Europe and beyond. The 1,109 mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, one of the longest in the world, runs straight through Georgia and carries upwards of 1 million barrels of oil a day. Carola Hoyos, chief energy correspondent for the Financial Times recently discussed on NPR how important that oil is to the West; particularly, in terms of promoting energy security and reducing our reliance on uncertain sources like Russia.

Three excellent sources of geographic data on international oil supply and demand include the Energy Information Administration, the USGS and the British Petroleum Statistical Review. Below is a list of some of the datasets we’ve extracted from those sources and geocoded along with a few others that may be useful in exploring the geopolitics of oil and the oil dimension of the Russia-Georgia conflict. Stay tuned in the next couple of weeks for a collection of domestic oil and natural gas data and other relevant data on endangered species and constraints to exploration and drilling in the United States and offshore.

Supply

Proved Oil Reserves by Country (1997-2007)
Natural Gas Production by Country (1997-2007)
Natural Gas Proved Reserves by Country (1997-2007)
Oil Production by Country (1997-2007)
Known and Undiscovered Natural Gas in the World (Except the U.S.) – Total Petroleum System (2000)
Known and Undiscovered Oil in the World (Except U.S.) – Total Petroleum System (2000)
Known and Undiscovered Natural Gas in the World (Except the U.S.) – Assessment Unit (2000)
Known and Undiscovered Oil in the World (Except U.S.) – Assessment Unit (2000)
World Oil Transit Chokepoints

Demand

Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports from Russia by U.S. Port (Jan-June 2008)
Valero Imports of Oil and Petroleum Products from Russia by U.S. Port City (Jan-June 2008) (Valero leads the pack in terms of oil imports from Russia through U.S. Ports)
U.S. Imports of Total Crude Oil and Products by Country – Monthly (Jan 2005-May 2008)