Here are abstracts of our key findings with links to the more detailed blog posts:

1. There has been a shift in violence from Iraq to Afghanistan. When all events of violence were tabulated there was a 13% increase in violence (attacks) in Afghanistan and 23% decrease in violence (attacks) in Iraq between the pre and post surge time periods. Blog Post Here.


2. When the total violence is examined, Afghanistan’s percentage share of violence has increased from 12% to 17% between the pre and post surge time periods. Blog Post Here

3. While there has been a shift in percent of change from Iraq to Afghanistan, the total violence in Afghanistan is dwarfed by Iraq. Since the surge, total violence in Iraq is equal to 5,465 attacks while Afghanistan’s is considerably less with 1,104 attacks. Blog Post Here

4. From the beginning of 2005 through to the end of the 1st quarter of 2008, the percentage of total attacks that were improvised explosive device (IED) related has increased by 13.19 % in Afghanistan, and 14.75% in Iraq. The pre-surge average for percentage of total attacks that were IED related in Afghanistan was 18.81% and 35.66% in Iraq. Post-surge averages show that 23.76% of attacks in Afghanistan were IED attacks and 41.59% of attacks in Iraq were IED attacks. Both countries are favoring IED attacks over other types, such as suicide bombing and assassinations. However, there has been a significant decrease in suicide bombings in Iraq since the surge but an increase in Afghanistan. This could indicate a move of more radical elements from Iraq to Afghanistan. Blog Post Here

5. From January of 2005 to March of 2008, there was a decrease in reported attacks on energy infrastructure by %70, although during the same time period the total number of attacks increased by %40. Blog Post Here

6. The overall trend of violence in Iraq has been moving gradually east towards the Iranian border. In Afghanistan there has been no consistent pattern or shift in violent attacks. Blog Post Here

7. Violent attacks in Iraq have been geographically concentrated and consistent over time, but attacks in Afghanistan are far more dispersed and locationally erratic. This could mean that the same strategy of hold and clear hostile territory by systematic progression, might not work in Afghanistan where attack patterns are not stable over time but spatially volatile. Blog Post Here

For Access to our public datasets in Finder! On Iraq, Click Here
For Access to our pulic datasets in Finder! on Afghanistan, Click Here
To view the maps that have been created on Iraq, Click Here
To view the maps that have been created on Afghanistan, Click Here

To get a sense of how attacks played out week by week, we used a time-stamped kml file in Google Earth. The change in the color of the points roughly indicates pre and post “surge” (early may 2007, in this case).

Check out the screen shots:

Attacks tend to concentrate in a few areas. In order to make sure all of them showed up, some points were pushed out just slightly from the point to which they were geocoded.

In Afghanistan, the spatial means for both fatalities and IED fatalities show more movement. The attack patterns in Afghanistan are far more erratic and geographically dispersed as shown in the map below.

Figure 16: Calculated Spatial Means in Iraq and Afghanistan

The map below also shows the spatial means, however, the size of the circles represent points in time: the largest circles are post-surge and the smaller ones are pre-surge attacks.

Figure 17 and 18: Calculated Spatial Means: Fatalities from Violence in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The map illustrates an outward movement of attacks. In Afghanistan, the population is located around the periphery of the country since the interior is mountaneous. In Iraq the map shows a much tighter clustering of attacks with a slight shift north since the surge. Spatial standard deviations for the monthly fatalities and IED fatalities were also calculated. These statistics indicates the degree of spatial dispersion of the attacks weighted by some feature such as the number of fatalities or number of wounded. On the chart, the higher standard deviation score indicates that attacks are more spatially dispersed. With the exception of October, 2007 in Afghanistan, the spatial variation of fatalities has remained relatively constant in both countries and in terms of both fatalities and IED-related fatalities. Although, in comparison to Afghanistan, fatalities have been more geographically concentrated in Iraq. The statistics show that attacks are roughly twice as dispersed in Afghanistan as in Iraq—again reinforcing the different pattern of attacks being seen in Afghanistan.

Figure 19: Spatial Standard Deviations: Iraq vs. Afghanistan

Another method for examining the data is to map the spatial standard deviation ellipses for each month in both Iraq and Afghanistan. On both maps the blue ellipses reflect total fatalities and the yellow reflect IED fatalities. In both countries, IED attacks show a similar pattern to the overall pattern of violent attacks in the region. Although in both cases IED attacks are slightly more concentrated than violent attacks in general.

Figure 20: Spatial Dispersion of Fatalities in Afghanistan

Figure 21: Spatial Dispersion of Fatalities in Iraq

The more narrow ellipses in Iraq illustrate that the attacks are more concentrated in a southeast to northwest direction. The wider ellipses in Afghanistan indicate more dispersion and are located in a southwest to northeast direction.

In conclusion, the analysis shows a much different pattern of attack in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Pundits have pointed to the clear and rebuild strategy, used successfully in Iraq, for reducing violence in Afghanistan. In Iraq “First, US and Iraqi security forces project into an area and provide initial security, then locals are recruited into auxiliary security forces, and reconstruction and aid projects quickly follow,which encourage the population to engage with security forces for a new tier of security.” This strategy was systematically used to secure neighborhoods, sometimes on a block by block basis. Since the geographic pattern of attacks in Iraq was very consistent, it makes sense that this strategy would work well. The areas of violence were well understood and could be rooted out in a systematic way. The evidence produced by the analysis of Afghani attacks shows that the same strategy would be challenging since attacks are dispersed and there is not a stable pattern of violence. This means forces could spend a large amount of time securing neighborhoods where there were no enemy forces or potentially future attacks. This could further alienate the local population.

Datasets:
Spatial Mean, Fatalities in Iraq
Spatial Mean, Fatalities in Afghanistan
Spatial Mean, Fatalities from IED attacks in Iraq
Spatial Mean, Fatalities from IED attacks in Afghanistan

Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan (Oct 07 – March 08) on Finder!

Figure 15: Absolute Change in IED Attacks, Post-Surge The map illustrates the shift in violence (measured in IED fatalities) from west to east in Iraq and in the south and northeast in Afghanistan. Also highlighted is the decrease in violence in most Iraqi provinces while there is an increase in violence for a large share of Afghan provinces.

Figure 10: Number of Attacks on Energy Infrastructure Per Quarter from January of 2005 to March of 2008 in Iraq
Attacks on energy infrastructure one year before the surge and one year after (using April 2007 as the beginning date for the post surge time period) show a pattern more similar to that of total attacks. Both decreased by around 25% in total attacks for each time period.


Figure 11: Percent Decrease in Attacks Before and After Surge
The number of attacks on energy infrastructure before and after the surge decreased from 149 to 112. However, attacks on pipeline remained the same; 24 attacks in the year before the surge and 24 attacks in the year after the surge. Therefore, the share of pipeline attacks in total energy attacks was greater post surge.


Figure 12: Percent Decrease in Attacks on Pipelines before and after Surge Maker! was also used to display the change in violence over time by layering 2 datasets together in one map.


Link to Map

Figure 13: Attacks on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Pre-Surge

Link to Map
Figure 14: Attack on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Post-Surge

Datasets:
Pre-Surge Pipeline Attacks, Iraq, April 06- March 07
Pre-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 06-March07
Post-Surge Attacks on Pipelines, Iraq, April 07-March 08
Post-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 07-March 08

Figure 1: Percentage of IED Attacks to Total Attacks. Shows increase in the usage of IED’s in attacks in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Break in the Chart shows the break between pre-surge and post-surge.

Table 1: Percentage of attacks by type of attack by country from 2005 to the end of Q1 2008

Interestingly, suicide attacks in Afghanistan have been increasing as a percentage of total attacks, and decreasing in Iraq. This shows that Afghanistan is seeing an increase in both IED attacks and suicide bombings, while suicide attacks in Iraq are falling. This could indicate a move of more radical elements from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Figure 2: Percentage of Suicide Attacks Compared to all Attacks. It shows the percentage of suicide attacks compared to all attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan. The break in the chart shows the break between pre-surge and post-surge data.

After doing an analysis using the spreadsheet of the violence data, Maker! was then used to present findings visually as well as show the spatial aspect of the trends.

Figure 3: IED Attacks as Percent of All Attacks for Afghanistan

Figure 4: IED Attacks as Percentage of all Attacks for Iraq

The dataset for these maps can be found here.

Here we can see the locations that IEDs are most heavily utilized. These maps show the percentage of IED attacks compared to total attacks for both Iraq and Afghanistan, and are drawn to the same scale. Iraq IED attacks are centralized around Baghdad and the main roads leading to other major cities, whereas the IED attacks in Afghanistan are dispersed mostly near the Pakistan border.

Figure 3: Total Violence, Pre and Post-Surge, For Afghanistan and Iraq.

In order to communicate the trends spatially, the data was downloaded from Finder! as a shape file and then used in ESRI’s ArcScene to create three dimensional maps. The maps below show where in each country the levels of attacks and fatalities have been the highest. Darker red hues indicate higher numbers of fatalities and the heights of the polygons depict the number of attacks. The maps look down on Iraq and Afghanistan from the north and northeast. One can see that in both the pre and post-surge periods, the distribution of attacks and fatalities is spatially skewed. In Iraq the highest levels have been in the northern and eastern provinces, while in Afghanistan they have been in the southern and southeastern areas.


Figure 4: Number of Attacks and Fatalities Pre-Surge (Finder! link)


Figure 5: Number of Attacks and Fatalities Post-Surge (Finder! link)

Figure 1: Distribution of Afghanistan Violence Pre and Post-Surge

A more refined look at the trends in share of violence in Afghanistan, using quarterly figures, shows a similar pattern. From the 1st quarter of 2005 to the 1st quarter of 2008, the Afghanistan shares of violence for all metrics have generally increased. Total fatalities and IED related fatalities appear to show the greatest increases. Interestingly, in terms of the number of people who are wounded from attacks, Iraq’s shares have remained relatively steady (at around 80-85%) over the period.

Figure 2: Share of Afghanistan Violence Out of Total Violence

Map: Attacks from 2004-2008 in Afghanistan

(Smaller Circles 2004 &2005, Larger Circles 2006, 2007 & first quarter of 2008)
To access the Maker! map click here.

Our key findings were summarized in a Report entitled “Analysis of the Relative Violence in Iraq and Afghanistan Pre and Post ‘Surge’”. During the next 4 days, we will be featuring a seven part blog series on these findings.

Key Finding #1
Using the CSV files (Pre Surge, Post Surge) downloaded from Finder!, we were able to analyze the statistics of the attacks for a better understanding of the levels of violence in both countries. There has been a shift in violence from Iraq to Afghanistan. When all events of violence were tabulated there was a 13% increase in attacks in Afghanistan and 23% decrease in attacks in Iraq. The most profound shift has been in the number of IED fatalities. Following the surge up until March, 2008, fatalities associated with IED attacks increased more than two-fold in Afghanistan.

Table 1: Pre and Post-Surge Violence in Afghanistan

Table 2: Pre and Post-Surge Violence in Iraq

Click here to see the map of the attacks by IED fatalities.